It seems far into the future, but for the Bay State, the year 2010 may be too close for comfort.
That's when the U.S. Census is expected to show Massachusetts losing population compared to other states - putting it at certain risk of losing a seat in Congress.
"It's definitely going to lose a seat," said Clark Bensen, a principal at Polidata, a Lake Ridge, Va., company that uses Census data to project how seats are distributed in Congress.
Along with the Census comes "reapportionment," when Congress figures out how many of its 435 seats go to each state. Massachusetts currently has 10 seats. Experts say the state won't hold onto all of them because of its meager population growth.
The U.S. Census Bureau reported last month that the state gained a mere 3,826 people between July 2005 and July 2006. The bureau projects that between the last Census, in 2000, and 2010, the state's population will grow by 1.4 percent. Nationwide, the country's population should expand by 10 percent.
"To move back up to keep a seat, you'd need a couple-hundred-thousand extra people," Bensen said. "It really doesn't sound doable."
If the state loses a seat, the Massachusetts Legislature will redraw the state's 10 congressional districts as nine. What happens once that process begins is anybody's guess.
"It's unpredictable," said Julian Zelizer, a political scientist at Boston University.
U.S. Sen. John Kerry's decision to run for re-election in 2008 has added to the unpredictability. In picking a seat to eliminate, the Legislature might pick on a junior legislator, Zelizer said. Congressmen Martin Meehan, Stephen Lynch and Michael Capuano were believed to have coveted Kerry's seat. The House member winning the race to replace the new senator could have been selected to have his district merged with others.
With that no longer a factor, geography may decide. Western Massachusetts is the most sparsely populated part of the state. Lawmakers might consider combining Congressman Richard Neal's Springfield district with Amherst Congressman John Olver's turf. And Olver is thought to be considering retirement, making eliminating that district even more palatable.
Democrats control the Legislature and therefore redistricting. Massachusetts Republicans have proposed creating a nonpartisan commission to take politics out of the process.
House Minority Leader Bradley Jones Jr., R-North Reading, said the commission would make drawing district boundaries fair and avoid gerrymandering, the process of creating serpentine districts to protect incumbents rather than serve constituents.
"We need to have compactness, contiguity, without splitting communities," Jones said.
One certainty arising from a poor Census showing: Massachusetts will lose federal money tied to the state's population.
"There's a lot of federal largess that's distributed based on population," Bensen said. "There's no question you will get less federal money by having fewer people."
A host of funding sources is in jeopardy, Zelizer said - municipal development and federal transit programs, housing and urban development, Medicaid.
Massachusetts' powerful congressional delegation could offset those losses, said David King, research director at Harvard University's Institute of Politics.
"What matters is that the people in Congress are powerful and in position of influence," King said.
Massachusetts' delegation is second only to California in power and influence, even though California is much larger, King said. He cited as examples:
* Sen. Edward Kennedy, the longest-serving member, works both sides of the aisle effectively.
* Congressman Michael Capuano of Somerville directed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's transition team.
* Congressman Jim McGovern of Worcester is the second-ranking member of the powerful House Rules Committee.
* Newton Congressman Barney Frank chairs the influential Financial Services Committee.
* Congressman Edward Markey of Malden is Congress' foremost expert on telecommunications law.
"Massachusetts could have a state delegation of five," King said, "and if they're the right five, it's a tremendously powerful and important state.
Massachusetts last lost a seat after the 1990 Census. The 1980 count also resulted in one less representative. Meehan, however, isn't ready to concede a seat.
"Massachusetts is going to have to make sure we have a good federal Census," Meehan said.
Congressman John Tierney, D-Salem, said, "We should all try to encourage a full and accurate count."
Secretary of State William Galvin's office is preparing to reach out to students and illegal immigrants to ensure they are counted. Brian McNiff, a spokesman for Galvin, said a person's status - legal or illegal - is not a factor.
"Illegal aliens would be reluctant to talk to anybody from the government," McNiff said. "But the Census calls for them to be counted. So the more we can count, the better off we are, not only from a congressional matter but whatever else the Census is used."
