SWAMPSCOTT — The latest financial filings for the governor's race show an enormous dollar advantage for former Swampscott Selectman Charlie Baker.
Yet, as with so much in life, appearances can be deceiving.
Baker, the presumptive Republican nominee, has $2.3 million in ready cash. His opponents, Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick and state Treasurer Tim Cahill, an independent, both claim roughly $1 million each.
"I think we're in a good financial place," Baker spokesman Rick Gorka said.
Nevertheless, "it's a tight race," Gorka concedes. Baker continues to be dogged by Cahill, a former Democrat running as a fiscal and social conservative, siphoning off potential GOP support, and leaving all three candidates bunched together in the polls.
Consequently, the Republican Governors Association is running TV and radio ads painting Cahill as a big-spending tool of special interests.
Gorka stresses that under campaign laws there cannot be any connection between Baker and this group. Nevertheless, the ads warn fiscal conservatives away from Cahill. The effort reveals why spending in politics is difficult to chart these days. The RGA works on Baker's behalf but is apart from him.
Gorka predicts Patrick will get similar help from the White House down the road and said he expects to see third-party ads running for the governor, too.
Patrick spokesman Steve Crawford dismisses this as "wild speculation." When it comes to the governor's money, he said, "What you see is what you get."
But that doesn't cover what you might get in the future. Crawford expects that donations will pick up with money coming from small donors.
"Deval Patrick has always run a grass-roots campaign," he said. "We're doing that this year."
As for Baker, he said, he "has figured out how to raise money. ... He's a candidate appealing to the special interests."
Citing Patrick's "strong" online presence, Crawford underscored where some of the governor's money has already been spent. "I wouldn't just look at cash on hand."
Crawford acknowledges the tough economy but expects Patrick's plan to provide services like a new rail line to New Bedford, biotech and green technology to boost his popularity.
Cahill campaign aide Millie Feldman said the Cahill campaign actually has more financial resources than are apparent in the recent campaign reports. Some funds are declared less often, she said. "This is why it looks like we've only got $960,000."
The treasurer has another $2.5 million salted away in certificates of deposit, she said, that won't be used until it is needed.
Cahill campaign manager Adam Meldrum sidesteps claims that Cahill's funding has "dried up" since he left his party. Yet, Cahill saw roughly $60,000 in donations for the last two weeks of April, compared to $193,000 for the governor and $638,000 for Baker.
"We're confident we've got enough cash on hand," Meldrum said.
He disputed the ad claims that Cahill used the power of his office to win cash, pointing to "grass roots" support. "Yesterday (Thursday) someone heard the treasurer on the radio — he was doing the Howie Carr show — and he called in and asked where he could give some money."
He also dismissed the suggestion that Cahill isn't answering GOP attack ads because of money worries.
"We're not going to let what other campaigns do dictate what our campaign does," he said.
Just how significant the financial status of the candidates is remains to be seen.
Money, even lots of money, can't always help in the face of a really bad economy, said Dan Mulcare, an assistant professor at Salem State College.
"All things being equal there is an advantage to incumbency," he said. But this might be the rare occasion when things are not equal.
"At this point, the economy is down and Patrick is not the most popular of governors," he said.
He also wonders if the economic conservatism that put Scott Brown in the U.S. Senate is helping Baker or Cahill. "Cahill spoke at the tea party rally (Aug. 14)," Mulcare noted.
Despite a dominant Democratic Party, roughly half of the voters are independent, though independents have been seen as sure losers in statewide races. Meanwhile, Republicans, with a pitiful 11 percent of registered voters, have held the governorship for 16 of the last 20 years.
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