The number of registered Democrats in many North Shore communities has steadily increased over the past eight years, while the number of Republicans has declined, even in some towns long considered GOP strongholds.
A comparison of the current voter registration rolls to those from 2006 and 2002 — the last two gubernatorial election cycles — shows long-term Democratic gains and dwindling numbers of Republicans in Beverly, Danvers and Marblehead.
The trend is the same in towns where most voters supported the Republican nominee for governor in the last two elections. Topsfield, Boxford and Hamilton — where the voters chose Kerry Healey in 2006 and Mitt Romney in 2002 — now show more registered Democrats and fewer registered Republicans than eight years ago. Republicans still have more registered voters overall in those communities.
However, the numbers may not necessarily be good news for Democratic hopefuls this fall.
Unenrolled voters — those who consider themselves independents — are also on the rise in nearly every community and, in most cases, already comprised more voters than both parties combined.
Many of those unenrolled voters may really be Republicans in disguise, Democratic strategist Michael Goldman said.
"They like the idea of being able to say to you, 'I'm not a Democrat or a Republican. I'm an independent. I make my choices as they come,'" Goldman said. "But when you ask them when was the last time they voted for a Democrat, they'll say John F. Kennedy."
Goldman blamed the drop-off of Republicans on a disconnect between New England conservatives and national party ideology on issues like the environment, gun control and same-sex marriage. Those voters may be fiscally conservative, but they're social libertarians, he said.
"It's a message to the Republicans that the socially conservative messages that so appealed to Republicans nationally are really not playing well in Massachusetts," he said.
In fact, the voter registration trends may have the opposite effect come Election Day.
Goldman predicted — as many other pundits have — that the percentage Republicans receive at the polls this year will actually increase.
Meanwhile, Republican candidate for state representative Brett Schetzsle of Beverly said the fall elections will be won or lost based on the unenrolled voters.
"No Republican is going to win just counting on Republican voters," Schetzsle said. "And no Democrat is going to win on just Democratic voters."
"For a person that is not a strong activist one way or another, there's very little incentive to enroll in a party," Schetzsle said.
That's because unenrolled voters can choose either ballot in primary elections, and candidates in most local elections are nonpartisan, he said.
In several communities, the trends were steady over an eight-year period. For example, Beverly Democrats climbed from 6,159 in 2002 to 6,468 in 2006 and 6,846 this year. Republicans dropped from 3,410 in 2002 to 3,086 in 2006 and 2,880 this year.
Meanwhile, unenrolled voters in that city gained as well, from 13,889 in 2002 to 14,547 in 2010.
While most communities experienced dramatic increases in the overall number of registered voters, Salem was a unique case. The city had 28,450 voters in 2002. In eight years, that number fell to 24,784 this year.
Staff writer Chris Cassidy can be reached at ccassidy@salemnews.com.
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