BEVERLY — Eight years ago, Bill Scanlon was the loser in one of the biggest upsets in the city's political history when he was knocked out of the mayor's office by Tom Crean.
As this year's campaign heads into its final 24 hours, the big question throughout the city is whether that could happen again.
Scanlon, already the longest-serving mayor in Beverly's history, will be seeking an eighth two-year term when voters go to the polls tomorrow. He is being challenged by John Burke, a city councilor who has won three elections in Ward 3 but has never run for citywide office.
Rinus Oosthoek, a member of the Beverly Democratic City Committee, said he thinks Scanlon will win, "but it will take all the voters to go to the polls to make that happen."
"I hope Bill Scanlon wins," he said, "but it might be closer than what people realize."
The Scanlon campaign might know best how close the race will be. The campaign paid $2,530 earlier this month for a telephone poll to gauge voters' opinions. Scanlon declined to reveal the results of the poll but said he is "cautiously optimistic."
Endicott College professor and former City Council candidate Robert Jerin said he doesn't think Scanlon is vulnerable to an upset like the one Crean pulled off in 2001.
Jerin said Scanlon was surrounded by more controversy back then, including a judge's ruling that he had improperly handled the public bidding process for the contract to manage the city-owned Beverly Golf & Tennis Club.
"He's not as detached from the citizens as I think he might've been back then," Jerin said. "He's more in tune with the people."
Jerin and others, however, noted that Burke has worked hard on his campaign, from knocking on doors to mailing citywide campaign literature with personalized greetings to residents.
"You can't fault him for his hard work," said City Council President Tim Flaherty, who is not running for re-election. "He's knocked on a lot of doors and done a lot of mailings. That is to his strength, to give people that have never met him before a good first impression."
Flaherty said the question is whether voters will overlook controversies involving Burke. Two years ago, he was censured by the City Council when it was discovered he was the author of an anonymous letter to councilors criticizing the Police Department. Burke, 30, also had a restraining order taken out against him by his foster family when he was a teenager.
"John has worked hard, no question, but can he escape his past missteps?," Flaherty asked.
Scanlon is seen as vulnerable due to his personality, which has been described by some as arrogant and abrasive. At the end of Tuesday's debate at the Centerville Improvement Society, Scanlon drew boos from the crowd when he refused to shake Burke's hand.
Grant Street resident and Burke supporter Bill Simpson said the handshake snub, combined with what he described as Scanlon's "nasty campaigning," will hurt Scanlon at the polls.
"I think John has a very good chance," Simpson said. "I think the mayor should have shaken his hand instead of being arrogant about it. Sometimes nasty campaigning works, and sometimes it doesn't. In the long run, it hurts our city."
Flaherty said voters who don't like Scanlon will have to decide if they want to risk turning over the city to "an inexperienced individual."
"A lot will come down to, are people going to make their decision based on who will be the best mayor, or are they making a decision because they don't like Bill's personality?" Flaherty said.
Jerin said Burke's best chance is if Scanlon backers take the election for granted and stay home.
"Burke has a lot of ardent supporters," Jerin said. "If he gets all his supporters out to vote, and people who may think the mayor has it in a walk don't come out, (Burke) may do all right."
Staff writer Paul Leighton can be reached at 978-338-2675 or by e-mail at pleighton@salemnews.com.
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