By Alan Burke
It's a race that will be hard to predict. The special primary on Dec. 8 and election on Jan. 19 will choose a new U.S. senator from Massachusetts from six major party hopefuls: Democrats Martha Coakley, Mike Capuano, Steve Pagliuca and Alan Khazei, along with Republicans Scott Brown and Jack E. Robinson.
But the race comes at an odd time in the calender, and even the pollsters are uncertain who will actually vote given an electorate that seems largely disengaged. Those who do will choose a replacement for appointed Sen. Paul Kirk and fill the seat occupied by Ted Kennedy for nearly half a century.
Attorney General Martha Coakley will go into the election with the backing of a compelling majority of the North Shore's senior political leadership, including mayors, representatives, state senators and activists.
She's down-to-earth, says Peabody's Mike Schulze, a party regular. "She's not going to go off on issues like Alaska's North Slope. She's interested in people. In people-type issues."
Schulze is joined in Coakley's corner by a long list of officeholders, including Mayors Kim Driscoll of Salem and Michael Bonfanti of Peabody, in addition to District Attorney Jonathan Blodgett, Sen. Fred Berry, and Reps. Joyce Spiliotis of Peabody, Mary Grant of Beverly, John Keenan of Salem and Lori Ehrlich of Marblehead.
The former head of Peabody's Democratic City Committee, Schulze has worked in the private sector and he sees Coakley as someone who understands the importance of business. "She's not just anti-business. She knows you've got to make things work right."
He contrasts her strongly with her opponents, especially Capuano, people he sees as far left-wingers.
Along with Congressman John Tierney and former Rep. Michael Harrington, both of Salem, Ted Speliotis is supporting Capuano after having worked with him when the congressman was an aide on Beacon Hill. The Danvers representative grew to respect his judgment. "(He) is a close friend."
State committeeman Arthur Powell of Beverly is another Capuano supporter. He points out his man has been endorsed by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
"He's in a unique position to follow the footsteps of Sen. Kennedy," he added.
Powell expects that Capuano, the former mayor of Somerville, will be especially capable of making Washington understand the needs of Massachusetts, particularly when it comes to dealing with unemployment. "I think this is an important part of the job. It's really about representing people in the community."
Powell tears into investor Steve Pagliuca, pointing to his work with Bain Capital, the firm that produced much of former Gov. Mitt Romney's wealth. In fact, he added, Pagliuca supported Romney's Senate bid versus Ted Kennedy in 1994, as well as, in the past, George W. Bush.
None of that bothers Pagliuca backer Dave Gamache, a Peabody city councilor. "If an idea is good," he said, "you should go with the good idea and not the party label." He believes that Pagliuca has good ideas — including his support for health care legislation.
"He is a self-made man," Gamache continued, noting his man came from an ordinary family before establishing himself as a fabulously successful businessman. "Everything's he's touched has turned out very well. ... I hope he's the guy."
Alan Khazei supporters, including insurance executive John Archer of Beverly, Marbleheader Joan Hollister and breast cancer awareness activist Susan Wadia-Ells of Manchester-by-the-Sea, could not be reached for comment.
On the Republican side, Sen. Scott Brown has pretty much locked up the region's GOP officials — at least so few are backing his opponent, Jack E. Robinson, that his campaign was unable Wednesday to produce the names of any local supporters.
"(Brown) is a hard worker who cares about the commonwealth of Massachusetts," Rep. Brad Hill of Ipswich said. "Fiscally, I agree with all his issues. If we keep going the way we are, the federal government is going to bankrupt this country."
Brown, he believes, would bring a voice of fiscal restraint to Washington.
Hill acknowledges that Brown will face a prodigious challenge if he wins the primary, having to overcome what will likely be a well-financed Democratic campaign and the state's historic reluctance to vote for Republicans.
Thus far, Brown has relied as much on shoe leather and determination as money, Hill said. And he feels the time might be right for Brown. "Many of the people I represent want to see a change."
