Maybe state Sen. Scott Brown of Wrentham can win next month's race to fill the late Ted Kennedy's U.S. Senate seat. It won't be easy.
Brown will face Attorney General Martha Coakley, who easily won her primary race against three, mostly well-financed candidates. She will have the support of the state's powerful Democratic Party establishment and the unions.
North Shore political experts, including partisans from both sides, believe that gives her a formidable advantage.
Brown can be elected, Democratic political consultant Michael Goldman said, "if he changes his party affiliation to Democrat and becomes a candidate that people will vote for."
In fact, Goldman pointed out, Brown is a Republican in a state and region that has no Republicans in the House of Representatives. Massachusetts hasn't elected a GOP U.S. senator since Ed Brooke in 1972.
Yet, even Goldman paused to consider the fact that Republicans have held the governor's office for 16 of the last 19 years, with only Deval Patrick breaking the string. When it comes to the Senate, he said, local voters believe they're "better off with a Democrat in control of various committees than they would be with the likes of (South Carolina Sen.) Jim DeMint."
When Goldman says "DeMint," he lapses into a slight Southern accent.
"Clearly, (Scott Brown) can win if the revolution starts early in 2010," said Barbara Anderson, the founder of Citizens for Limited Taxation, a political independent and a Salem News columnist. She said she expects a sharp backlash against ongoing government policies that have seen deficits on the local and national level spiraling out of control.
In addition, Anderson is urging Brown to attack Coakley for her prosecution of the Amirault family in the 1980s. It was one of a parade of prosecutions at child day care centers accusing staffers of child sexual abuse.
Some of those cases were ultimately discredited. The Fells Acre case, which sent three of the Amiraults to jail, continues to be debated.
"I do think he has a chance," Anderson added. "But people have to start paying attention." She laments the meager turnout in Tuesday's election, adding, "I'll be endorsing Scott Brown. And putting his bumper stickers on my car."
"I think it's certainly a long shot," said Beverly Mayor Bill Scanlon, also an independent. "I think Martha Coakley is a very strong candidate. She comes across as senatorial. ... This fellow Brown has a long way to go."
Even Gloucester Sen. Bruce Tarr, who worked on Brown's campaign, acknowledges as much. Yet, he remains optimistic. "A lot depends on capturing the fellow in the middle of the political spectrum."
Issues should matter, Tarr said, citing Brown's position on "holding the line on taxes. Making sure health care reform is going to be good for Massachusetts." In addition, he notes Brown's decades as a high-ranking National Guard officer will help him understand foreign policy issues like the war in Afghanistan.
Getting information about Brown's persona and positions out to largely disengaged voters in a short period presents a problem, but Tarr pointed to Brown's $500,000 campaign war chest with more money likely on the way now that he's won the nomination.
Longtime Democratic activist and Coakley supporter Mike Schulze of Peabody has no patience with Brown. "I highly doubt he can win." Schulze complains that Brown spouts "the traditional bull lies about lower taxes." He complains that Brown has gone about declaring that the Democratic Party "is not the party of JFK."
"Well," Schulze retorted, "it's not. And you're not." He worries that Brown will get soft treatment from Boston's WCVB Channel 5, where his wife, Gail Huff, is a longtime reporter.
Schulze added, "I'm not a fan of Scott Brown. Even though he was a centerfold." As a young man, Brown posed nude for Cosmopolitan magazine.
For all that, he concludes, "We're not going to take him lightly."
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