The Energy Department expects temperatures in the Northeast to be about 3 percent colder than a year ago, resulting in a 3 percent increase in consumption of heating oil. Bills will be lower, however, because the average price for heating oil will drop to $3.68 a gallon from $3.87. About 25 percent of homeowners in the Northeast use oil for heat.
But the government cautions that if temperatures are about 10 percent below expectations nationally, heating oil costs could rise around 9 percent from a year ago. That would mean an average bill of $2.280, a record.
Dave Streit, a meteorologist at the Commodity Weather Group, which forecasts weather patterns to predict energy demand, expects slightly cooler than normal temperatures.
“It will look like a colder winter than what we’ve seen over the last couple of years,” he says. “But nothing compared to the harsh winters we had in the two years before that.”
Mark Wolfe, Executive Director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, which advocates for heating assistance for low income families, worries that high heating oil prices, colder weather, and cuts in federal heating assistance will leave more families vulnerable.
In 2010, Congress set aside $5.1 billion for heating assistance. This year, Wolfe is expecting $3 billion.
“Two years ago we could help close to 2 million more families than we can now,” Wolfe says.
The Energy Department predicts that heating demand will fall 0.3 percent nationwide. The Northeast is expected to experience the biggest increase, up 3.4 percent, while the West is expected to see demand drop by 3.1 percent.