Arthur Cyr: Iran's bark worse than bite

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January 31, 2012

Arthur I. Cyr The Salem News Tue Jan 31, 2012, 04:45 AM EST

"What's past is prologue," William Shakespeare wrote in "The Tempest," a tale of fantasy, hatred and intrigue — but ultimate success — by a leader. The line is worth remembering when considering Middle East matters.

The mullahs ruling fundamentalist Iran threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting world oil traffic. Simultaneously, they enrich uranium, an essential prologue to the manufacture of nuclear weapons.

The danger of a nuclear-armed Iran greatly reinforces the ongoing overheated rhetoric from Tehran about destroying Israel. The United Nations, in reaction, has imposed economic sanctions with teeth.

In this increasingly charged atmosphere, the United States plays an even more pivotal role than usual, while facing particular severe challenges in the military and diplomatic spheres.

The U.S. has unequaled tangible military power, along with considerable indirect influence given the size and reach of our economy, but this coexists with important limitations. The U.S. military has been under enormous stress for years, beginning with the Bush-era invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq with minimal forces — an approach that in hindsight clearly was cruel, as well as impractical. The current high suicide rates among our military personnel in part reflect this fundamental misjudgment.

To his enduring great credit, Robert Gates addressed the pressing problem regularly during his tenure as defense secretary. But he retired last July, and today prominent leaders in both political parties generally avoid this painful subject. The sole exception is GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul.

The history of Iran-U.S. relations is also painful. Three decades ago, the seizure of the American embassy in Tehran, and resulting long-term hostage crisis, reinforced a reputation for weakness that plagued President Jimmy Carter to the end of his single term in office. The disastrous failure of an overly complex mission to rescue the hostages, which Carter tried to micromanage from the White House, greatly magnified his negative image. This in turn was a prime factor in Ronald Reagan's decisive political victory in the 1980 presidential election.

Given this background and current severe tensions, the recent observations of Dennis Ross are important. An unusually knowledgeable and dedicated public servant, he has served in both Democratic and Republican administrations, including President Obama's National Security Council. No Arab apologist, he is accurately seen as committed to Israel's security.

Ross recently noted that Iran generally has demonstrated realism in actual behavior, as opposed to rhetoric. Leaders tend to evaluate odds of success, and act accordingly. This means the substantial and growing costs of the international sanctions may over time bring about more reasonable attitudes on the part of Tehran's leaders.

Iran has also shown restraint in using armed force. During the long, costly war with Iraq, Iran suffered attacks of weapons of mass destruction without responding in kind. The regime is militantly opposed to drug trafficking, and partly for this reason has aided the government of Afghanistan.

Fortunately, disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is much more easily threatened than achieved. During the tense 1980s, the Reagan administration provided Kuwaiti tankers with U.S. flags and U.S. warship escorts. This led to fitful armed conflict and in 1988 the tragic mistaken destruction of an Iran civilian aircraft by the USS Vincennes, but no serious reduction in oil shipping.

Carter also initiated the grueling but successful Camp David negotiations, which resulted in the durable Egypt-Israel peace treaty. In that case, he demonstrated that a history of intense conflict could be prologue to more peaceful relations.

• • •

Arthur I. Cyr is Clausen Distinguished Professor at Carthage College in Kenosha, Wis., and author of "After the Cold War." Contact him at cyr@carthage.edu.

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