Brace yourself for the bad news first.

According to the Warren Group, which charts changes in the Massachusetts real estate market, the price of single-family homes is down 18 percent since last year. And the number of sales is likewise down to an 18-year low.

For bad measure, condo sales are showing an even steeper decline.

"I don't think we've hit bottom yet," said Timothy Warren Jr., CEO of the Warren Group, publisher of Banker & Tradesman. In a press release, he said, "We saw some increases in sales volume toward the end of last year, but there needs to be steady sales gains for three to four quarters before prices begin to level off."

But if statistics tell the story, they don't always tell the same story to the same people.

"Things are looking good," said real estate broker David Kres, president of the North Shore Association of Realtors. "Things are looking very good as far as sales data goes." And pretty soon they're going to look even better, he said. "All indications are that sales are going to see a significant increase."

The key difference in his outlook, Kres said — he's looking at Essex County numbers compiled by the broker's "multiple listing service" while Warren is crunching numbers statewide.

According to the Warren Group, the median price for homes sold statewide during the first three months of 2009 fell to $253,500 from $310,000 in the first quarter of 2008. Sales of single-family homes during the first quarter fell roughly 11 percent to 6,160 from 6,912 a year earlier.

At a glance, town-by-town numbers on the North Shore hint, however, that prosperity might be, maybe (we can hope) just around the corner. Sales did increase in some towns, up by two homes to 14 in Danvers, up five to 13 in Marblehead and up five to 14 in Salem.

All this, Kres said, is due to low prices and low interest rates creating historic bargains for homebuyers. There seems much agreement on that point.

Yet, by contrast, none of this has translated into a recovery in the value of property. Median prices since last year are only up in statistically dubious small towns like Boxford and Manchester. Hamilton took a hit from $537,500 to $340,000 and Peabody, with 17 sales, dropped from $332,000 to $299,000.

Even so, Kres is not discouraged, predicting that the month-by-month numbers tell him home prices will actually begin to climb by next year. He points hopefully to a 1.1 percent increase in Essex County prices from February 2009 to March 2009.

"As far as things being better in Essex County," responded Ken Ardon, associate professor of economics at Salem State College, "that's probably true." He tends to discount, however, the impact of month-by-month fluctuations in price. "Sales are picking up as people buy foreclosed or discounted homes. ... To say the market is trending upward is a stretch."

This region is, however, doing better than states like Florida, California and Nevada. Several reasons explain this, Ardon continued. For one, New England banks avoided toxic subprime mortgages. Further, that bane of developers everywhere — the NIMBYs, people crying "Not in my backyard" over every building scheme — served a positive purpose, preventing the sort of wild building boom that's devastated the real estate industry in cities like Las Vegas.

Add to that, well-established, seaside communities like Greater Boston offer limited ground for building anyway.

For his part, Ardon agrees that housing is currently a good buy. Nevertheless, we won't see a recovery in the real estate market until we see a recovery in the economy. That, in turn, won't come until people no longer fear losing their jobs.

"Unemployment is probably going to continue rising," Ardon said, "throughout the year and throughout 2010."

Lloyd Hamm of Eastern Bank sees the real estate glass as half-full, stressing the opportunities for buyers. At the same time, he's restraining his enthusiasm for the long term.

"We're still bouncing along the bottom," he said. "I don't think you're going to see increases in home values for five to 10 years."

It's a view, he acknowledged, that's been disputed even by his colleagues at the bank.

Government efforts to support the market by buying up bad loans has helped, Hamm said. Interest rates have dropped. People are buying. Refinancing has become a booming business for banks. But he wonders at the long-term impact of government spending and borrowing.

With the federal deficit growing by trillions, inflation is a real possibility. That can be a positive for people who buy homes now. House values and interest rates go up during inflation but your mortgage won't.

Single-family home sales

City/TownMarch 2008March 2009YTD 2008YTD 2009

Beverly16154434

Boxford52913

Danvers12142824

Hamilton45119

Ipswich571420

Manchester34813

Marblehead8133121

Middleton47913

Peabody27175450

Salem9142328

Swampscott351212

Topsfield0148

Wenham0061

Single-family home median prices

City/TownMarch 2008March 2009YTD 2008YTD 2009

Beverly$380,000$308,000$362,300$335,000

Boxford$550,000$0*$599,000$483,450

Danvers$395,500$302,500$339,950$316,750

Hamilton$537,500$340,000$570,000$340,000

Ipswich$430,000$256,000$394,500$377,500

Manchester$548,500$801,400$754,250$888,000

Marblehead$482,500$360,000$510,000$380,000

Middleton$442,000$610,000$420,000$580,000

Peabody$332,000$299,900$331,000$271,750

Salem$290,000$226,500$330,000$262,550

Swampscott$307,000$330,000$398,000$392,500

Topsfield0*0*406,500425,000

Wenham0*0*382,8480*

* At least three sales are required to determine a median price

Source: The Warren Group