BEVERLY — The biggest question facing the city today is whether voters will pass a $2.5 million Proposition 21/2 override.
The second biggest question is: How many voters will make that decision?
Supporters on both sides say they have no idea how many of the city's 24,298 registered voters will turn out to vote today in Beverly's first override election.
"A lot of people are telling us they're going to go out and vote no. The question is, are they going to go out and vote no?" said Elliott Margolis of Citizens for Fiscal Responsibility, which opposes the override.
Tracey Armstrong of Yes! for Beverly, the citizens group in favor of the override, said she can't predict today's turnout, either.
"I've never run a campaign before," she said. "Not one of us has."
The ballot question asks voters whether the city should be allowed to increase property taxes by $2.5 million to help fund the schools. The increase would cost the owner of an average-priced home in the city $187 per year, permanently. The average-priced home is about $457,000.
If the override fails, McKeown School will close and students will be redistricted among the five remaining elementary schools, effectively increasing the size of the neighborhoods the schools serve. If the override passes, the school system will stay the same for at least the next year.
The issue has dominated public debate in the city over the last two months, with packed crowds at public hearings and forums and sign-holders standing at busy intersections. On Saturday morning, people with "Vote Yes" signs lined a two-mile stretch from the Shaw's Plaza in North Beverly to the Cabot Cinema downtown.
But the city has never had a special election with a single question on the ballot and has never had an election in June rather than the usual times in September and November, so the turnout question is difficult to answer. City Clerk Fran Macdonald said she has "no idea whatsoever" how many voters to expect.
Only 27 percent of the city's registered voters turned out in the last election in November, which featured a low-key race for mayor. The recent high for the city came in the 2004 presidential election, when 77 percent of registered voters went to the polls.
Turnouts for override elections in other North Shore communities this year include 52 percent in Ipswich, 51 percent in Hamilton and 47 percent in Wenham.
Former City Council President Paul Guanci, who is publicly neutral on the override question, predicted a 50 percent turnout in Beverly.
"Proposition 21/2 has been around for 26 years, and this is our first election," Guanci said. "It's definitely caught everybody's attention."
If the override passes, Beverly would join Newton and Taunton as the only cities, as opposed to towns, to approve overrides in this decade, according to the Massachusetts Municipal Association.
Newton passed an $11.5 million override in 2002, while Taunton approved a $104 million override to pay for a school project last year. Newton rejected another override bid, for $12 million, last month.
Pat Mikes of the Massachusetts Municipal Association said it's much more difficult for cities to pass overrides than it is for smaller towns.
"It's because of the demographics," she said. "Cities have a more diverse population."
Both sides in the Beverly debate said they will be out holding signs throughout election day. The Yes! for Beverly group is hosting a gathering at the Cove Community Center tonight. Margolis said he will await the results at City Hall.
The polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Results will be tallied soon afterward at the city clerk's office at City Hall.
Yesterday, on the eve of the election, leaders of the opposing sides praised each other for what they said was a high level of debate during the campaign.
Margolis said he once worried that "Yes" supporters were stealing "Vote No" signs. But he said he changed his mind over the weekend when "Yes" supporters recovered both "Vote No" and "Vote Yes" signs that had been stolen and thrown in a Dumpster.
"Tracey (Armstrong) called me immediately and dropped our signs off at my house," Margolis said. "She has been more than cooperative and very helpful. I can't imagine that she or her group would be behind this at all."
"This has not been a spiteful process," Armstrong said. "It's been a very positive, community spirit type of thing."
Beverly election turnouts
2007 mayoral final — 27 percent
2007 mayoral preliminary — 13 percent
2005 mayoral final — 41 percent
2004 presidential final — 77 percent
2004 presidential primary — 18 percent
Overrides approved in 2008
Brookline, $6.2 million
Canton, $4.5 million
Ipswich, $1.5 million
Hamilton, $1.47 million
Dennis, $257,464
Millis, $180,000
Provincetown, $153,000
Sheffield, $100,000
Wenham, $601,267
Spencer, $528,371
Overrides rejected in 2008
Newton, $12 million
Yarmouth, $1.8 million
Shrewsbury, $1.5 million
Holliston, $992,000
Ashland, $496,332
Groton, $106,437
Source: Massachusetts Municipal Association
