Republican pundits predicted that the recent debate in Dearborn, Mich., would be sabotaged by the liberal moderator Chris Matthews, who would, they said, set partisan traps for the Republican presidential candidates.
Matthews surprised them. Except for one wisecrack directed at Fred Thompson, his behavior was evenhanded and professional.
Nobody knew what to expect from Thompson, who made his first appearance in the continuing debates. He's a laid-back guy who sells a Ronald Reagan-like set of values. But he doesn't have the natural physical and oratorical gifts of the Gipper.
Thompson did well, however. He obviously had studied up on the issues of the day; and he was not bruised by the other candidates.
The exact dates of Republican caucuses and primaries are still being determined because a number of states are jockeying for a position that will make their votes more meaningful. It is almost certain, however, that Iowa will be first and New Hampshire will be second.
Mitt Romney seems to be a certain winner in Iowa. Giuliani and Thompson are well behind; McCain and Huckabee have drawn weak support. Huckabee is an interesting long shot because of the large undecided vote.
Romney leads Giuliani in New Hampshire by an uncomfortably close margin of 4 percentage points, according to a recent poll. McCain and Thompson are still contenders there; Huckabee may improve if he draws a big vote in Iowa. Otherwise, look for him to drop out after the New Hampshire primary.
Hunter, Tancredo, Brownback and Paul should drop by the wayside after Iowa and New Hampshire unless their egos demand otherwise.
Romney's basic strategy is to do well in the early contests and then to build upon that performance. He leads in Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan, and he's competitive in South Carolina, a state that so far favors Giuliani and Thompson.
Giuliani, competitive in New Hampshire, shares the lead with Thompson in South Carolina (though the former New York City mayor figures to fade as his social views become better known), and he currently holds a strong lead in traditionally Democratic territories like New Jersey, California, Pennsylvania, and, presumably, his home state of New York.
Thompson entered too late to make a serious impression in the earliest primaries, but he's showing well in South Carolina. His generally conservative message could take hold elsewhere, if he can sell it. Time will tell.
Defense is John McCain's issue. But it appears that he's too late with too little.
Theoretically, Huckabee is the best and most reliable conservative in the race, but he has not captured the public's affection.
From this angle, in terms of the early primaries, Romney emerged as the winner of the debate. He may have picked up a few points because of his effective comments to Michigan voters, and the fact that he landed the most effective blow of the night when he pointed to the judicial appointments of Giuliani in New York. That thrust that shot holes in Giuliani's pledge to appoint strict constructionist judges if elected president.
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Robert Kelly of Peabody writes regularly for the opinion pages of the Eagle-Tribune newspapers. His e-mail address is robert.kelly5@verizon.net.
