National Football League teams spend millions of dollars, scour countless hours of film and exhaust coaching and scouting staffs for a three-month stretch.
All this is to ensure wise choices today and tomorrow in the annual NFL Draft. Still, every year teams miss badly, not just in the late rounds, but in the first round as well.
And every April guys you know are true studs keep slipping because of a bad drill at the NFL Combine.
Take the 2005 first round, for example.
NFL types were enamored by running backs Ronnie Brown, Carnell Williams and Cedric Benson. All went in the top 5. All have been solid and serviceable, but true game-changers?
Meanwhile, didn't we all have a feeling that the big-play guys were around on defense, like DeMarcus Ware, who went to Dallas at 10 and Shawne Merriman, chosen by the Chargers at 11.
With that said, here are eight probable first-rounders this corner has projected for NFL stardom.
And then we'll look at eight first-round level guys that are destined to disappoint.
Eight potential Big Shows
Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame - Enough of all the Brady bashing. No, he doesn't have the physical skills. He does have the arm, the instincts, the will to work and the desire to learn. Sound familiar? Brady may not be Tom, but he will be the real deal. He is money in the bank.
JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU - Size, speed and toughness. Russell can throw it a mile and fit it into a suitcase if he has to. He's got the potential to be among the league's all-time greats.
Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech - Terrell Owens without the attitude. Big and fast, fearless and able. Perhaps, he's the next Larry Fitzgerald. Either way, he'll make some struggling quarterback very happy.
Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin - Place him on your left side and simply watch the pass-rushers melt in the turf. He's a mean, nasty, mobile mass of destruction. Doesn't just block, he's a punisher.
Leon Hall, CB, Michigan - The one, true lock-down guy in the draft. He'll be worth every penny to the team that grabs him. All business on the field. Doesn't exactly test well, but gets the job done. Reminds me of that former Michigan/Patriots guy, old Ty something or other.
Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss - May not be the next Ray Lewis, but he can run and pursue and tackle with Brian Urlacher any day of the week. He'd look good behind Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour and Ty Warren.
Michael Griffin, S, Texas - He consistently makes the jaw-dropping plays. Sure, there'll be some early mistakes in judgment on the field, but this pure athlete will figure prominently where it counts, on the scoreboard. Special teams, return game, he'll be electric.
Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU - His mouth gets in the way, and he has a high opinion of himself, but Bowe is still a puppy. He's only played the game for five years. Should he land in the hands of a creative offensive coordinator, he'll be extremely dangerous.
Eight primed as "No Shows"
Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma - Love his athleticism, just not sure about his toughness. Injury-prone. Collarbone woes scare me away. Can't see him carrying the load for 16 games.
Levi Brown, OT, Penn State - He'll never be considered a prolific left tackle in this league. Might be a solid right tackle in the mold of a Nick Kaczur, but will never live up to his top-10 billing.
Reggie Nelson, S, Florida - Allowed free rein in the secondary at Florida. He'll struggle with structure and added responsibilities in the pro game.
Greg Olsen, TE, Miami - Picking a tight end in the first round is like picking a fullback there. It's just not worth it. If Benjamin Watson and Daniel Graham weren't proof of that, how about Kellen Winslow Jr., Jerramy Stevens, Dallas Clark and Anthony Becht, all first-round picks who've yet to go to a Pro Bowl.
Find the next Antonio Gates later. This guy is another tight end destined for NFL anonymity.
Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida State - Typical FSU outside guy. Excelled in gambling blitz schemes but struggles with staying home and doing his job. By the way, he's slower, less agile and not as strong as North Andover's Zak DeOssie, who is 25 pounds heavier and can play inside.
Ted Ginn Jr., WR, OSU - The "damaged goods" tag on him flashes brighter than the Kenmore Square Citgo sign. And he tops out at Deion Branch, a very good receiver but not Jerry Rice.
Paul Posluszny, OLB, Penn State - Mechanically sound, very tough, but can he deliver the explosiveness needed at the position? His past efforts say no.
Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC - His 4.7 40-yard-dash time suits a 285-pound edge pass rusher, not a 220-pound outside pass-catcher. He's not Keyshawn Johnson, folks. He's too slow to play this game at the top level.
Hector Longo is an Eagle-Tribune sports writer. E-mail him at hlongo@eagletribune.com.
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On the money again?
Veteran beat writer Hector Longo was the only member of the New England media to correctly predict the Pats' selection of Laurence Maroney in Round 1 of the 2006 NFL Draft.
