Potential vs. position scarcity (or lack thereof) is an important factor to consider on draft day.
Sure a player might be a good value, but a draft is like a game of chess ‑ every move has a consequence. So, it is incumbent on each fantasy owner to decide, “is this player not only talented enough, but valuable enough at this spot for me to pencil him into my lineup?”
I bring this up with Buster Posey in mind. The defending National League MVP was stellar for the World Champion Giants, hitting .336 with 24 homers and 103 RBI and showing he was fully recovered from a nasty looking broken ankle in 2011. Even prior to the injury Posey showed he was an elite talent.
So the real question is this - is he worth drafting at an average draft position of 17.4 in Yahoo! leagues, especially when Carlos Santana and Matt Wieters are both available 60 picks or more after Posey has been taken off the board?
Like anything else, the answer to this question depends on your team. If you have a sound strategy, absolutely go for it. I personally have been a big Posey fan for a number of years, but really liked Santana as well and Wieters had a breakout year last year.
Perhaps more important for me is Posey’s first base eligibility. Given that, I would be comfortable drafting Posey to play first and then selecting Santana or Wieters or even Miguel Montero (ADP: 123.4) or Jesus Montero (ADP: 162.3) later on to catch.
It’s unlikely Posey will repeat his 2012 stat line, but he’s still an elite offensive player and worth consideration early in drafts.
As we get closer to Opening Day and, for many, draft day, I think it is important for fantasy players to do their due dilligence and participate in a mock draft.