Last February, fantasy players were dealt a surprising blow before Spring Training even really kicked into full swing. Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright, who finished second in the NL Cy Young race in 2010, required Tommy John surgery and just like that his 2011 season was over.
Then the Cardinals went on to win the World Series and suddenly no one was talking about the man who closed out the Cardinals' World Series championship in 2006. Now, the forgotten Wainwright could represent a great bargain in fantasy drafts this spring.
Wainwright recently told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he is feeling good. It has also been reported that he's been throwing off a mound and has begun facing live hitters. He also told the paper that he expects to be in the Opening Day rotation and he hinted that he would prefer not to be limited to a low innings count.
Now, it's hard to gauge how to adequately evalute Wainwright until we see him pitch, even if it's just in a low-pressure Spring Training environment. But, if Wainwright looks healthy and can convince the Cardinals to give him a long leash, he probably can be had in a decent spot in the draft.
Wainwright has a career ERA of 2.97 and was stellar in the two years prior to his injury: 19-8, 2.63 ERA and 212 strikeouts in 2009 and 20-11,. 2.43 ERA and 213 strikeouts in 2010. There are a whole list of pictchers who will likely go ahead of him — some of them deserving, some of them not — and if you're willing to take a mild risk it could payoff big time.
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On the flip side of the Wainwright coin is Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun.
The cloud of a 50-game suspension looms over the head of the 2011 National League MVP. Despite reportedly testing at "insane" high levels of synthetic testosterone, Braun has maintained his innocence, even appealing the suspension. Braun has already had his hearing, but no ruling has been delivered yet.
And the longer this plays out minus a conclusion the more difficult it is for fantasy players. Braun playing a whole season and Braun missing 50 games represent two entirely different fantasy values. Even aside from the loss of 50 games, it would likely take Braun time once he returns if he the suspension holds, further diluting his potential value. Manny Ramirez was never the same following his suspension in 2009.
Without the suspension, he likely remains a top 10, if not top 5, fantasy player. Last season he hit .332 with 33 home runs and 111 RBI en route to the MVP and has never hit below .280. But, it has been reported that there is no deadline for a ruling on Braun's appeal and should it be upheld late you don't want to be stuck holding the bag of having one of your top picks being sidelined for nearly a third of the season.
Caution is recommended when considering Braun, even after his appeal is either upheld or denied.
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It will be interesting to see what, if any, impact Josh Hamilton's recent off-the-field issues have on his fantasy draft stock.
Normally, people would suggest that a big name slugger entering his walk year would be a prime candidate for a blockbuster season. But given Hamilton's demons and his injury history, it's not hard to envision fantasy owners being skittish.
Some will likely point out that a DUI last winter did little to derail Detroit's Miguel Cabrera, but this could different. Given how much time Hamilton has missed due to injury and now his recent alcohol relapse, he may fall in drafts. If so, he could be worth a gamble.
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Andy Silva writes the Fantasy Forecast for The Salem News. You can follow him on Twitter @ SN_fantasysport.
