Last week, I pointed out guys who could give you more bang for your fantasy buck. This week, I look at the opposite: guys who will frustrate you because they give you less than what you pay for.
Shonn Greene, RB, Jets
There's no denying that Greene was stellar in the playoffs last season. He rushed for 135 yards and a TD against the Bengals in the Wild Card and followed that up with a 128-yard, 1 TD performance against the Chargers. The Jets showed faith in him by discarding Thomas Jones, making Greene the feature back.
But there are concerns. Greene has to look over his shoulder at LaDanian Tomlinson. While LT is not the same player he was earlier in his career, he still stands to potentially steal some goal line carries. Even in a down year last season, Tomlinson scored 12 touchdowns. Combine that with concerns about Greene's ability to hold onto the ball, and I just don't see picking Greene where he's currently going in average Yahoo! drafts, which is in the second round at the 15th overall pick. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers
I've never been a Big Ben fan. He's always been one of those guys who's a better real life player than a fantasy player. Add in a four-game suspension to start the season, and there's even less reason for optimism.
With RB Rashard Mendenhall coming back healthy and the loss of WR Santonio Holmes to the Jets, it's not a stretch to believe that the Steelers might look to lean more heavily on the ground game. Even though Roethlisberger threw for 4,328 yards a year ago, I'm avoiding him altogether this season. I won't even consider him as a backup.
Donovan McNabb, QB, Redskins
McNabb had a solid season for the Eagles last season, throwing for 3,553 yards and 22 touchdowns in Philadelphia. However, with his move to the nation's capital, his value is taking a hit.
The Redskins' wide receivers are certainly nothing to write home about. His top targets are Santana Moss, Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly and tight end Chris Cooley. Among those, Cooley is the most productive of the group — but is coming off of a broken ankle.
And don't forget the 'Shanahan Effect.' It seemed that every season during his tenure in Denver, Shanahan had a new running back near the top of the league in rushing. Having Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson in the backfield, it's hard to believe that Shanahan will go through the air as much as coach Andy Reid did in Philadelphia.
Brett Favre, QB, Vikings
The old gunslinger had perhaps the best season of his career in 2009. Favre threw for 4,202 yards, 33 TDs and just seven INTs and led the Vikings to the NFC title game. But thins aren't looking as rosy in 2010.
Favre is still struggling with an ankle injury which affected him in the NFC title game. He's gone as far as to say he can't guarantee that he will be able to play the whole season. Moreover, his top target in 2009, Sidney Rice, is out for at least the first six games after being placed on the PUP list. Couple that with Percy Harvin's migraine problems and there are concerns as far as the Minnesota wide receiving corps go.
Plus, I just can't envision the notoriously adventurous Favre throwing single-digit interceptions again. Prior to last season, Favre had thrown at least 13 picks in every season since his rookie year in Atlanta, including 22 picks with the Jets in 2008. I just can't believe that Favre will be able to contain his wild streak for another season.
Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens
I believe Boldin will be a solid fantasy player, but not necessarily the player you think he will be.
After years of playing in the pass-happy Cardinals offense with fellow standout Larry Fitzgerald on the other side of the formation, Boldin moves to the traditionally run-first Ravens, where he'll immediately become the focus of opposing defenses on passing downs. He also has to adjust to a new quarterback Joe Flacco, who continues to improve but shouldn't be confused with future Hall of Famer Kurt Warner.
With a potent running threat in Ray Rice, I have a hard time believing that the Ravens will change their M.O. and put more of the game into the hands of the relatively unproven hands of Flacco. Boldin will be solid, but he won't soar like he did with the Cardinals.
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Andy Silva writes the Fantasy Forecast column for The Salem News. You can read his blog at blogs.salemnews.com/fantasyforecast, and he can be reached at asilva@salemnews.com. You can follow Fantasy Forecast on Twitter at twitter.com/sn_fantasysport.
