These are my best guesses for the local Super 8 contenders:
Peabody (currently 10-3) probably has to go 18-4 or 19-3 to grab a Super 8 bid. The Tanners’ resume includes wins over St. John’s Prep, Malden Catholic and possibly Xaverian and Andover if they hit 18 or 19 wins; that should be enough to offset an upset loss to Swampscott two days ago. But the Tanners haven’t left themselves much room for error in the final three weeks.
St. John’s Prep (11-1) has won 11 straight contests and is looking like a lock for the Super 8. The Eagles are 4-0 in Catholic Conference play, and if they sew up a share of the league title, they’ll be almost automatic. To me, the Prep would have to go 15-5 or worse and fall to second in their league to slip out of the top eight.
What about Gloucester, which is 12-1? The Fishermen own a marquee win over Peabody and could grab another one when they face St. John’s Prep on Friday, May 16. The good news for Gloucester is that the tournament information packet available on the MIAA website explicitly states that exclusion games will be considered for the baseball Super 8; if Gloucester has 18 or 19 wins with victories over both the Prep and Peabody, they’ll make a compelling Super 8 case.
Masconomet is 12-0 and if it runs the table may merit consideration. We know that in hockey it’s nearly impossible for a Division 2 team to make the Super 8, but we have no idea how that will shake itself out in baseball. Will the relative strength of the Cape Ann League hurt the Chieftains, or will their tourney run last year outweigh that?
Danvers (9-4) was also on the initial list of 32, though they’d almost certainly have to win out and defeat St. John’s Prep over Memorial Day weekend to be in the top 8 mix.