One of the hardest things about drafting a team is evaluating players with success in limited major league action and players coming off an injury or ineffectiveness. It's easy to jump on the bandwagon when a young player does well in his initial call-up, or to jump off the bandwagon at the site of a gruesome injury or subpar season. The key is to remain even-keeled and to maintain perspective.
One of the hardest players to evaluate going into this year's fantasy drafts will be Carl Crawford. The Sox left fielder was a consensus top 10 pick going into last season after having one of his best campaigns with the Rays in 2010. He had speed, could hit for average and showed some increased power in his final season at the Trop. And moving into a hitter-friendly ballpark with a stacked lineup did little to quell fantasy owners' appetites.
But, 2011 certainly did not go as planned for Crawford's owners.
He could never get fully going, seeming to get close to breaking through but always hitting a wall. Crawford's final line (.255, 11 home runs, 56 RBI and 18 steals) surely will depress his value, as will the surgery Crawford underwent in January on his sore left wrist.
It's hard to say for sure until drafts, or even mock drafts, start, but I think Crawford has the potential to be a relative steal. I think he'll come out with something to prove once he's full healed, I think new Sox manager Bobby Valentine will put in him in a lineup spot and leave him there to get comfortable and I think he'll be better prepared for the expectations Red Sox fans will have for him. And I think enough people will remember last season and be leery. So I like Crawford, to a point.
On the flip side, I'm not sure about Kevin Youkilis. For a while Youk was a solid producer who you could count on for solid batting average and decent power. But, over the last two years he has missed quite a few games (40 last season, 60 in 2010) and the combination of his age (32) and recent injuries (sports hernia, groin and hip in 2011) and you have to wonder if we have seen the best of Youkilis at this point and if we need to readjust our fanatsy expectations moving forward.
Stephen Strasburg is another interesting case. It's undeniable that he was a phenom upon his arrival in Washington in June 2010 and that he is supremely talented. But, how will he respond to his first full season following Tommy John surgery? How will the Nationals use him after seeing him suffer a serious injury? It has already been reported that Strasburg will only pitch 160 innings this season, which surely decreases his fantasy value. Don't be blinded by the name or the highlights, keep in mind that 160 innings could go very quickly and leave you searching for quality pitching as the playoffs near. Covet him if you like, but have reasonable expectations and don't reach and take him too soon.
Meanwhile, not much has gone right of late for the Mets. Despite having a new stadium and an in-house TV network, the team finds itself in financial peril and struggling on the field. On of the lone bright spots had been Ike Davis, but that was before an ankle injury cut short his 2011 season. However, Davis recently said he is "good to go" for the start of Spring Training and is peforming regular baseball activities. Davis could benefit from the team brining in the fences at Citi Field and he appears set to move on from his lost 2011, telling Newsday, "In my mind, it's really in the past. Now I'm set up for the season and playing good baseball."
Finally, there is the curious case of Phil Hughes. After appearing to find himself in 2010, winning 18 games and being named an all-star, Hughes regressed badly last season. His ERA rose to 5.79 and he struck out almost 100 fewer batters (47) than he did in 2010 (146), although in fairness he did miss time with dead arm. Hughes was never right last year and one has to keep in mind that he will have plenty of competition for his spot in the rotation, as the Yankees recently added Michael Pinada and Hiroki Kuroda and still have a number of prospects close to being ready for the Show. If Hughes doesn't perform well out of the gate, he could be banished back to the bullpen, so he definitely represents a risk in fantasy.
No one has a crystal ball, but looking at as many reports out of Florida and Arizona as possible will help you be prepared to make a leap or to cut the cord.
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Andy Silva writes the Fantasy Forecast column for The Salem News. You can follow Fantasy Forecast on Twitter at twitter.com/sn_fantasysport.
