By Andy Silva
Staff Writer
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Fantasy Forecast
Andy Silva
This week saw two aces get traded, as Roy Oswalt went to the Phillies yesterday and Dan Haren was sent to the Angels on Sunday. Both should have more opportunities for wins, but beyond that who got the better end of their deals when compared to each other?
At first blush, one would assume that Haren may jump ahead of Oswalt for the rest of the season because of where each will be pitching. According to ESPN's ballpark factors, Angel Stadium favors pitchers to a much greater degree than Citizens Bank Ballpark. In fact, Angel Stadium ranked 25th out of 30 stadiums with regards to home runs, while Citizens is No. 10. In 2009, the Phillies' home park yielded 149 home runs, most in the National League and second only to New Yankee Stadium in all the majors.
One of Haren's biggest issues this season is the number of home runs he's allowed (24, compared to 27 all of last season), so the move will help in that regard.
Further exploration, however, shows Oswalt is still the man you want.
Lifetime at Citizens, Oswalt is 4-0 with a 2.60 ERA in four starts. He has also allowed just one home run in 272/3 innings pitched at Citizens. Moreover, he has solid numbers against every team in the NL East — with the notable exception of the team currently in first-place, the Atlanta Braves.
But, in his career Oswalt is 28-7 in August with a 2.80 ERA and similarly strong in September and October, going 28-9 with a 2.78 ERA. He will also benefit from the Phillies offense, which is the third highest scoring offense in the National League with 478 runs scored. His run support in Houston had been scant, so at the very least his increased likelihood for wins may offset whatever small spike his ERA may see. Haren, meanwhile, struggles notoriously in the second half, and especially down the stretch. The new Angels ace is 17-14 with a 4.58 ERA in August and 10-15 in September/October with a 4.29 ERA. And while the Angels are clearly a better team than the Diamondbacks, they actually score fewer runs (4.67, good for seventh in the AL) than the Phillies.
I think both pitchers will fare better with their new teams, but if you're going to attempt to trade for an ace, Oswalt is the way to go.
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Another big story that broke yesterday was the announcement that Stephen Strasburg would be placed on the 15-day DL with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. As scary as it might be for Strasburg owners to hear that he's on the DL there is a silver lining.
He is being placed on the DL retroactive to July 22, making him eligible to return Aug. 7. Reports yesterday indicated that is actually more likely to return sometime between Aug. 10-12, but still in early August nonetheless.
While Nationals manager Jim Riggleman said that Strasburg would have to be 100 percent in order to be activated, he also said that if he is healthy that he would still pitch to his innings cap. This is significant in that with this DL trip Strasburg may actually pitch in September now, thus proving value to owners in the fantasy playoffs. If he comes back perfectly healthy and can pitch at the same level as he has thus far, Strasburg could prove to be a huge factor in the fantasy playoff season when previously he was likely to be a complete non-factor. Even if teams had been looking to unload Strasburg prior to this injury, there is now reason to hang onto him and hope he'll be still taking to the mound when your league title is being decided.
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Josh Beckett has looked solid since returning from the DL. Granted he has faced the weak Seattle Mariners and the middle-of-the-pack offense of the Angels, it should be encouring news to owners who had until this point gotten almost nothing from a player they selcted expecting to be either an ace or a No. 2 pitcher on their staffs.
Moving forward, the Red Sox have a decent schedule and Beckett has historically been a strong second half pitcher. He is 47-36 with a 3.77 ERA lifetime in the second half and is even better in September/October, going 22-10 with a 2.95 during that period.
If you've stuck with him all season now might be the time you reap the rewards. And if your competition has a sour taste in their mouth from what Beckett has (or hasn't) given them this season, this might be a buy-low opportunity.
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With Shane Victorino being placed on the DL, the Phillies called up Domonic Brown, who has been tearing the cover off the ball in the minors. Between Double- and Triple-A this season, Brown has hit .327 with 20 home runs and 68 RBI and stole 17 bases. His plate discipline might be somewhat of an issue — he struck out 74 times compared to just 34 walks this season — but the 15th-rated prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America prior to the 2010 season still has a chance to make an impact, especially in NL-only or deep mixed leagues.
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Andy Silva writes the Fantasy Forecast column for The Salem News. You can read his blog at blogs.salemnews.com/fantasyforecast, and he can be reached at asilva@salemnews.com. You can follow Fantasy Forecast on Twitter at twitter.com/sn_fantasysport.
