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The World

February 26, 2011

Poll: Ireland heads for new govt led by Fine Gael

DUBLIN — The opposition Fine Gael party was poised to lead Ireland's next government, according to an exit poll released Saturday, a historic political upheaval after a real estate collapse brought the country to the edge of bankruptcy.

The exit poll from national broadcaster RTE showed Fine Gael with 36.1 percent of the first-preference votes, a figure that would put them in power but not capture a majority of seats in the Dail, the lower house of parliament. The poll was released an hour before the actual counting of ballots from Friday's national election began.

Irish voters punished the governing Fianna Fail party, angry over 13 percent unemployment, tax hikes, wage cuts and a humiliating bailout that Ireland had to accept from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

The exit poll showed Fianna Fail sinking to a shocking 15.1 percent support. In elections going back to 1932, it had never won less than 39 percent.

"However bad people thought it would get for Fianna Fail, nobody thought it would get this bad," said Michael Marsh, professor of comparative political behavior at Trinity College Dublin. "That is highly significant."

The Labour Party, Fine Gael's likely coalition partner, had 20.5 percent, which would be its best performance ever.

"The political landscape of Ireland is completely and utterly redrawn," said Roger Jupp, the chairman of Millward Brown Lansdowne, which conducted the poll for RTE.

The exit poll showed a range of more than 200 independent and minor party candidates with 15.5 percent support, while Sinn Fein — the party that supported the Irish Republican Army in Northern Ireland — had 10.1 percent. Sinn Fein won 2 percent of the vote in 2002 and 6 percent in 2007.

Fine Gael ("tribe of the Irish") and Fianna Fail ("soldiers of destiny"), were born from opposing sides in Ireland's civil war of the 1920s, and many see little difference between them on the issues. Fianna Fail, however, was leading the government when the nation's property boom collapsed in 2007, and made the decision that taxpayers should bail out Ireland's failing banks.

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